Video tool

Type of tool: Workshop

Phase: Co-design

4 POSSIBLE FUTURES

How to get prepared for possible research results and their implications in terms of public health action plans

People involved:

~10

Duration:

2hs

Author:

Epidemiologia & Prevenzione

The Challenge

Epidemiological investigations are aimed at studying the state of health of the population and interpreting it in relation to episodes of environmental pollution that have occurred over time. Before even starting an epidemiological study, possible results and policy implications should be discussed among citizens, representatives of local institutions and researchers. Considering beforehand all the possible research results and their implications in terms of public health action plans implies acknowledging the limitations of any epidemiological study, due to unavoidable uncertainties. Playing with an open hand, considering both desirable and less favourable scenarios, is a guarantee toward a transparent decision process when it comes to making policy choices on the basis of the research results.

How can we discuss with citizens and policy makers possible research results and their implications?

The Tool

This tool allows the anticipation of four possible scenarios based on different foreseen research results. It provides a bridge between environmental epidemiology and policy. Indeed, such exercise allows policymakers to appreciate the different aspects of the environmental problem under investigation and its connections with other policy-relevant issues, thus facilitating the choice of the strategies most apt to in the given contingencies.

Discover the tool in action!

Read the case study and understand how this tool has been used in a real citizen science project.

Which results can we foresee and what possible implications are?

CitieS-Health Lucca Pilot

What

In the CitieS-Health Lucca Pilot, this tool has been used in the second phase of the research, after the definition of the objectives of the epidemiological study. We defined and discussed four scenarios and their respective health policy implications. For each scenario, we reflected on the following questions:
Which results can we foresee?
How can we interpret each set of results?
What policy-actions can we hypothesize?

Why

To acknowledge the limitations of any epidemiological study, due to uncertainties that cannot be totally eliminated
To guarantee transparency in the decision processes

How
Open meetings with citizens. Citizens, researchers, representatives of the local administrations and associations took part in several open meetings, where different scenarios emerging from the research results were envisioned together with their policy implications.
Discussion around 4 possible scenarios. We defined and discussed four scenarios and their respective health policy implications. The scenarios resulted from a hypothetical anticipation of different study results. We labelled them as following:
1. everything OK;
2. lights and shadows;
3. critical issues;
4. damage caused by the pollution.
Public event. The most likely scenarios emerging from the results of the epidemiological study on renal function and their policy implications were presented in a public event. This was concluded by a round table with the mayors of the eight municipalities of the interested Serchio Valley.
Publication of an article on the scenarios and implications. An article was published in the journal Epidemiologia & Prevenzione describing in detail the possible results of the study and the ensuing policy implications. One citizen and the eight Mayors were listed as co-authors together with the researchers. This was meant as an acknowledgment of their involvement as well as their responsibility. Here you can read the article in Italian
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